AI hyperscalers to lift U.S. corporate bond issuance to $2.46 trillion

Barclays analysts project overall U.S. corporate bond issuance will rise to about $2.46 trillion in 2026, an increase of roughly 11.8 percent from $2.2 trillion in 2025, and forecast net issuance of about $945 billion, up 30.2 percent from $726 billion the prior year. The bank pins the bulk of the extra supply on financing needs tied to large cloud and AI platform companies — commonly described as hyperscalers — as they build data centers and AI infrastructure.

Barclays analysts wrote that "the increase in net supply is largely a non‑financial story, and the biggest upside risk is AI hyperscaler capex." That risk, if realized, would amplify a structural shift in how major technology firms access capital: increasingly through public debt markets rather than relying only on cash on hand. Bank of America analysts estimate the Big Five hyperscalers could borrow roughly $140 billion annually; Barclays’ own executive assessment, as framed by Meghan Graper, says funding needs for the top five U.S. technology firms "could reach almost $100 billion in 2026." Those differing figures should be treated as divergent analyst projections rather than settled facts.

The market evidence underpinning the forecasts is already visible. MUFG analysts found hyperscalers accounted for four of the five largest U.S. high‑grade bond deals in 2025. Mega transactions last year included Oracle’s $18 billion sale in September, Meta’s $30 billion issue in October — described by market participants as the largest-ever individual non-M&A high-grade bond sale — Alphabet’s $17.5 billion offering in November and Amazon’s $15 billion deal the same month. Since September 2025, public bond issuance by four major cloud-computing and AI-platform companies totaled nearly $90 billion, according to market tallies cited by dealers.

Beyond hyperscaler capex, Barclays and other analysts point to a backlog of merger-and-acquisition financing needs and routine refinancing as additional drivers of elevated supply next year. The projected jump in net issuance would reshape the supply-demand calculus in the investment-grade market, potentially weighing on credit spreads if primary-market absorption does not keep pace. Bank of America warned that sustained AI-driven borrowing could make the five hyperscalers "some of the largest issuers in the IG index," a structural shift with implications for index composition and passive investor exposures.

For policymakers and regulators, the trend raises secondary questions about market concentration and liquidity during stress episodes. A heavier weight for a handful of technology issuers could alter how shocks propagate through fixed-income markets and how index-tracking funds manage flows. For corporate treasurers and investors, the immediate consequence will be increased competition in the primary market for large "jumbo" deals and a reassessment of funding strategies amid rising capex needs.

Looking ahead, the scale of hyperscaler issuance will be a key variable for 2026. If capex needs are nearer Barclays’ more conservative internal estimate, markets may absorb the supply with modest disruption. If borrowing approaches BofA’s higher projection, investors and policymakers may face a more pronounced reconfiguration of the high-grade debt market. The coming quarters will test whether demand, including from pension funds and foreign buyers, keeps pace with this new supply dynamic.