China Exports Seen Rebounding After U.S China Tariff Truce

A Reuters poll of economists released on December 5 found China’s exports were likely to have returned to growth in November, with the median forecast calling for a 3.8 percent year on year increase in export value. The survey also put median import growth at 2.8 percent, signaling a modest pickup in cross border trade after an October slowdown.

Economists told Reuters that manufacturers had rushed shipments to take advantage of a tariff truce struck between Presidents Trump and Xi in late October. That front loaded activity is expected to show up in November customs numbers, and the poll noted that official customs data were expected to confirm the poll’s guesstimate when released. The anticipated rebound comes against a backdrop of persistent weakness in factory activity which remained in contraction for an eighth month, according to the poll summary.

The pattern implies a tactical response by exporters to temporarily lower trade barriers rather than a structural recovery in global demand. Elevated U.S. tariffs remain in place on many goods and continue to weigh on trade flows, constraining pricing and margins for manufacturers that depend on American markets. Economists in the poll cautioned that while the truce eased immediate pressure and may have prompted shipments to be brought forward, structural headwinds such as weak domestic consumption and lingering tariff exposure will limit the durability of any export recovery.

Market implications are mixed. A strong November print would be likely to ease some near term pressure on yuan depreciation and could support Asian equity markets by reducing concerns about a sharper slowdown in export related corporate earnings. Commodity exporters may also see small gains if Chinese import demand strengthens. At the same time, traders and policy makers will be watching the underlying momentum. If growth is driven largely by front loaded shipments, subsequent months could show a reversion, leaving policymakers with a choice between accepting slower trade dynamics or deploying fiscal and monetary support to sustain demand.

For Beijing, the numbers matter for both macro stability and industrial policy. A confirmed rebound would buy breathing room for authorities, who have been balancing support for growth with efforts to rein in leverage and maintain financial stability. But persistent factory contraction points to deep seated problems in investment and household spending that tariffs alone do not explain. Analysts say the government may need to accelerate measures to boost domestic consumption, improve credit access for small and medium sized enterprises, and encourage higher value exports if it hopes to reduce reliance on cyclical trade gains.

Global supply chains also face implications. A temporary surge in shipments can complicate inventory management and distort orders for downstream firms, potentially generating volatility in manufacturing schedules across Asia and beyond. As markets await the official customs release, economists will be parsing whether November’s expected uptick is a one off response to a political truce, or the start of a steadier recovery in China’s external sector.