China soybean purchases proceed on schedule, U.S. Treasury says

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on November 25 that Chinese purchases of American soybeans are "right on schedule," citing an agreement for Beijing to buy 87.5 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans over the next three and a half years. The remarks come as trade commitments between the two countries remain a focal point for commodity and agricultural markets tracking supply, demand and price signals.

The headline volume amounts to roughly 3.22 billion bushels, using the common conversion of about 36.74 bushels per metric ton. Spread evenly, the commitment averages about 25 million metric tons per year, or roughly 919 million bushels annually. That scale is large relative to typical U.S. export flows and has clear implications for planting decisions, storage logistics and cash returns facing grain elevators and farmers across the Midwest.

Bessent characterized broader relations between the United States and China as competitive but currently positive, noting that President Trump had called Chinese leader Xi Jinping and that the two leaders may meet multiple times over the next year at forums including APEC and the G20. Those channels could be used to reinforce purchase schedules, resolve disputes and discuss implementation details that matter for shipment timing and certification.

Commodity traders and farm groups are closely watching how the commitments translate into actual shipments. Price volatility in soybean futures has been sensitive to headlines about Chinese buying since trade negotiations resumed, because physical volumes are large enough to tighten available exportable supplies in peak months. Increased Chinese demand from the United States would tend to support soybean prices in Chicago, improving margins for oilseed crush plants and raising returns for growers holding inventory into the spring planting season.

Beyond immediate market effects, the agreement highlights the strategic role of agricultural trade in broader economic relations. A sustained uptick in U.S. soybean exports to China would improve U.S. agricultural sales, with ripple effects on farm income, transportation demand and rural economies. It could also influence planting allocations between soybeans and competing crops as farmers seek to respond to price signals over the coming seasons.

Implementation will be critical, because commitments on paper do not always translate into consistent purchases. Logistics, phytosanitary approvals, currency and payment arrangements, and seasonal crop cycles will shape the pace of shipments and the degree to which U.S. exporters can meet the agreed quantities. Markets will watch early shipping data and customs statistics for evidence that the plan is moving from commitment to delivery.

For policymakers, the arrangement offers both an economic win if deliveries proceed and a test of broader U.S. and China ties. Multiple high level meetings slated for the next year could reinforce the arrangement or reveal friction points that affect agriculture. For farmers and markets, the central question is whether the volume Bessent described will materialize in sustained purchases that meaningfully tighten global oilseed balances and lift domestic prices.