International Crisis Group’s CrisisWatch, the organization’s global conflict tracker, has released its August 2025 update amid a convergence of security and political risks that threaten to widen violence across parts of West Africa and the Great Lakes region. The tracker, designed as an early warning tool to prevent deadly violence by keeping decision-makers informed about developments in more than 70 conflicts and crises each month, underscores how fast-moving violence and contested political processes can interact to erode stability. In August, CrisisWatch’s narrative centers on a jihadist surge in Burkina Faso’s Centre-North and a political backlash in Burundi following elections that international observers and opposition groups have described as lacking transparency. Taken together, the briefing highlights the ways in which ostensibly separate flashpoints can feed each other, complicating crisis response for regional governments and international partners.

In the most urgent security development, CrisisWatch records a July 28 attack by al-Qaeda–affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) on a military base in Dargo town, in the Namentenga province of Burkina Faso. Reports indicate the assault resulted in the deaths of about 50 soldiers, marking what CrisisWatch characterizes as part of a broader trend of jihadist operations in the Centre-North region. The update also notes a pattern of JNIM raids on military positions south of Kaya city in the Sanmatenga province since late June, suggesting the group is pursuing a more expansive territorial footprint. Taken together, these incidents signal not only intensified violence but also the potential for the instability to spill across provincial borders, complicating security planning for a region already stretched by humanitarian needs and fragile governance.

Beyond the Burkina Faso border region, CrisisWatch’s July update highlights the way political lines intersect with security concerns in Burundi. On July 1, as Burundi marked its independence anniversary, President Evariste Ndayishimiye publicly accused opposition forces—particularly the National Congress for Freedom party and the Burundi Bwa Bose coalition—of acting under the influence of former colonial powers. The comment came in the wake of a chorus from opposition groups urging urgent attention to irregularities they claimed characterized the 5 June legislative and municipal elections. The opposition’s appeals, which were sent to the African Union, the East African Community, and the United Nations, called for addressing concerns about observer expulsions and a lack of transparency in vote counting. The president’s rebuttal amplified partisan rhetoric that could complicate reconciliation efforts and cast a shadow over the legitimacy of the electoral cycle, complicating Burundi’s broader stabilization and development agenda.

The juxtaposition of Burkina Faso’s military mobilization against JNIM with Burundi’s domestic political churn highlights a broader regional pattern that CrisisWatch has flagged in recent months: rising militant activity in Sahel and West Africa combined with contested political processes in East Africa that could undermine confidence in governance and reduce the space for negotiated settlements. In West Africa, analysts warn that the jihadist surge—described in CrisisWatch as a resurgence after a relative lull in early June—has implications for civilian protection, intercommunal violence, and the ability of governments to sustain security-sector reform. The Burundi case demonstrates how electoral disputes can evolve into political confrontations that, if left unresolved, may sharpen social fault lines, complicate governance, and invite external scrutiny that has the potential to alter regional diplomatic dynamics.

These threads do not exist in a vacuum. The CrisisWatch dashboards routinely pull in parallel tensions across the world, including Western Sahara’s political contestation over autonomy plans and the international stance on recognition. In August, the tracker notes that Western Sahara independence advocates criticized France’s recognition of Morocco’s autonomy plan—a development that has implications for regional alignments and diplomatic leverage in North Africa. While not a direct causal driver of Burkinabe or Burundian unrest, such developments illustrate how the global political gaze converges on regional flashpoints, shaping aid allocations, diplomatic engagement, and mediation strategies. CrisisWatch’s value lies in translating these disparate signals into actionable risk indicators for decision-makers, from humanitarian agencies to regional bodies and major powers.

The broader implications for regional stability are clear. In West Africa, the jihadist resurgence raises the risk of civilian displacement, escalation in intercommunal violence, and greater pressure on already fragile security architectures. In Burundi, the electoral episode carries the possibility of reduced public trust, protests, or intermittent political confrontation, especially if grievances about processing irregularities remain unresolved. For international actors, the August CrisisWatch entry reinforces the need for calibrated, evidence-based responses that emphasize protection of civilians, transparent governance, and inclusive dialogue. At the same time, the tracker’s cross-regional perspective reminds policymakers to examine how domestic political crises can create openings for negotiation and de-escalation—if addressed with credible, trusted mediation efforts and timely humanitarian planning.

Looking outward, CrisisWatch’s synthesis of regional data points to potential windows for diplomacy even amid volatility. The CrisisWatch framework has previously highlighted conflict-resolution opportunities when the international community aligns on a framework for ceasefires or transitional governance arrangements, such as the April 2025 edition’s reference to dialogue opportunities in Russia–Ukraine contexts under a U.S. ceasefire framework. Such examples matter because they illustrate how early warning tools can translate into proactive diplomacy: identifying leverage points, clarifying timelines for negotiations, and encouraging donor flexibility in funding peacebuilding and stabilization activities. In practice, the August 2025 update urges regional security actors, international organizations, and donor governments to treat Burkina Faso’s security challenges and Burundi’s political tensions as interconnected priorities requiring targeted support—protecting civilians, sustaining credible electoral processes, and enabling local and regional mediation efforts to prevent spirals of violence.

As CrisisWatch moves into August, the story is not only about isolated incidents but about the evolving infrastructure of risk: a jihadist project in Centre-North Burkina Faso that could redefine borders of control, and a Burundi crisis that tests the resilience of democratic governance in a country still negotiating its post-conflict identity. The tracker’s mandate—to illuminate trends, warn of escalation, and illuminate opportunities for peace—remains vital. For policymakers and humanitarian actors, the signal is clear: act with nuance and pace, invest in verification and transparency, and strengthen regional cooperation to prevent small flashes from becoming regional catastrophes. The August update should be read not as a snapshot of two discrete crises, but as a reminder that stability in one corner of the world often depends on purposeful, timely action across borders, institutions, and funding lines. The coming weeks will be defining for how Burkinabe security forces, Burundi’s political system, and neighboring states respond to a rapidly shifting risk landscape, and CrisisWatch will be watching closely for the signs that portend either escalation or durable de-escalation.