Heading into Election Day, Democrats in New Jersey have established a substantial early-voting advantage, winning both the vote-by-mail and in-person early tallies. Almost 675,000 registered Democrats have already voted in 2025, and they now comprise a larger share of the early electorate than they did during the 2024 presidential cycle. The net effect is that nearly 290,000 more registered Democrats than registered Republicans have cast ballots so far — a pre-Election Day cushion that is larger than the roughly 270,000 Democratic edge recorded before the 2024 presidential election.

Those comparative figures are consequential. In 2024, Vice President Harris carried the state by a little more than 250,000 votes, a margin of 5.9 percent. The expanded early advantage this year implies a more robust baseline for Democratic candidates in New Jersey’s governor’s race and supplies momentum for down-ballot contests. It also magnifies pressure on Republican campaigns to mobilize Election Day voters who have not yet participated.

Early-vote patterns matter beyond raw totals. Campaigns use early returns to recalibrate resources, target get-out-the-vote programs and tailor closing messages. A pronounced Democratic tilt in mail ballots and early in-person voting suggests that organizers in New Jersey have successfully converted party registration into completed ballots, while Republican efforts to counter that trend have so far underperformed. Political strategists caution, however, that early leads are not determinative: Election Day turnout, the volume of unaffiliated and late-deciding voters, and the handling of provisional ballots and final tallies will all shape final outcomes.

Though detailed early figures from New York City’s mayoral contest are not provided in this account, the New Jersey patterns are likely to reverberate across the Hudson. Regional political ecosystems are intertwined: media narratives, donor flows and volunteer deployment often cross state lines. A strong Democratic showing in New Jersey could buoy the party’s prospects in nearby New York races by reinforcing perceptions of momentum and energizing urban turnout programs. Conversely, a dramatic late surge or targeted Republican success could blunt that effect.

International observers watch state and municipal elections with interest because local leadership influences economic policy, immigration enforcement, climate initiatives and international business relationships at the municipal and state level. Governors and mayors shape regulatory environments that matter to foreign investors and subnational diplomacy. A shift in political control or mandate intensity can affect how states and cities engage with global counterparts, from climate partnerships to trade promotion.

As ballots continue to be counted and campaigns pivot to last-minute outreach, the Democratic early advantage in New Jersey sets the terms of the contest. It gives Democrats a quantitative head start and a narrative advantage heading into Election Day, but the outcome will ultimately hinge on whether that early participation sustains itself among the broader electorate when polls close.