Maya Mamdani leads Andrew Cuomo 49 percent to 44 percent in a hypothetical one-on-one contest for New York City mayor, according to a New York Times/Siena poll released Tuesday, but the advantage narrows — and could reverse — under lower-turnout scenarios that favor older, more regular voters.

The poll of 800 likely city voters, conducted Sept. 6–8 and carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, found Mamdani ahead across key blocs that have propelled recent progressive insurgencies: 63 percent among voters under 35 and 57 percent among Black and Latino voters. Cuomo held stronger margins with voters 65 and older and with white voters outside Manhattan, a pattern that pollsters said makes turnout the pivot on which the race will turn.

"A snapshot like this shows Mamdani's message is resonating with younger New Yorkers and communities of color, but it also shows the arithmetic that could help a well-organized old-guard campaign," said a Siena pollster briefed on the data. "If younger voters underperform, the dynamic changes quickly."

Mamdani, a community organizer-turned-civic entrepreneur who has emphasized affordable housing, transit investments and civic participation, cast the poll as evidence of momentum. "New Yorkers are ready for a mayor who fights for residents, not the status quo," her campaign said in a statement. "This campaign is built on turnout. We will keep knocking on doors and registering voters."

The Cuomo campaign pushed back against the notion of vulnerability. "Polls are a snapshot, not a destiny," a campaign spokeswoman said. "Andrew Cuomo has deep experience managing crises and getting results for New Yorkers. We see a path that relies on steady, reliable turnout and persuading undecided voters."

Beyond the topline numbers, the poll included modeled scenarios showing how turnout changes the outcome. In a high-turnout model that mirrors the 2020 general election profile, Mamdani's lead widens to 52–42. In a low-turnout scenario resembling midterm municipal contests dominated by older cohorts, Cuomo leads 51–47. Undecided voters — about 7 percent in the head-to-head — clustered among middle-aged voters and suburban boroughs, the poll showed.

The arithmetic has immediate implications for both campaigns' strategies and for civic groups that have historically boosted participation in city elections. Organizers in immigrant neighborhoods said they will intensify voter-registration drives and early-voting education, arguing that small shifts in turnout could determine policy direction for the nation's largest city.

International observers note the contest carries symbolic weight beyond city limits. As a global metropolis with large diasporas and international financial ties, New York's mayoral leadership often signals policy priorities that resonate abroad, from climate adaptation and migration to policing and public health. For communities watching from abroad, the election represents not only local governance but also the representation of immigrant voices on a prominent stage.

Analysts say the race will hinge over the next month on where campaigns invest resources: ground operations in dense neighborhoods, outreach to older suburban precincts, or a last-minute persuasion push. With early voting now underway in parts of the city and absentee ballots already being cast, the turnout "twist" sketched by the Siena poll makes the mechanics of mobilization — not only persuasion — the defining battleground in the weeks ahead.