Morgan Stanley has identified a short list of overweight-rated stocks it believes are most likely to deliver earnings surprises when third-quarter reports roll in later this month, naming Roblox and Capital One among the most prominent candidates. In a client note circulated before the start of the season, the bank described the names as "most likely to show profits in excess of what the Street is expecting," a framing that underscores both upside potential and the market's sensitivity to incoming data.

Roblox, which is scheduled to report on Oct. 30, is a focal point for analysts tracking ad spend and engagement trends in the videogame and metaverse-adjacent ecosystem. Morgan Stanley flagged the company for prospective upside linked to higher-than-expected bookings and improvements in average revenue per daily active user (ARPDAU) — metrics that have driven outsized moves in gaming stocks when they beat consensus. For Roblox, a beat could be read as evidence that advertisers and users are sustaining spending despite macro uncertainty, bolstering investor confidence in the digital-advertising recovery.

Reddit, set to release results on Oct. 27, also made Morgan Stanley’s list, with the bank citing momentum in ad monetization and user engagement as potential catalysts. Reddit’s performance will be watched closely as a barometer for smaller-format social platforms’ ability to convert user attention into advertising dollars, a trend that has broad implications for online ad pricing and media allocations.

Capital One Financial, likewise highlighted by Morgan Stanley, represents a different kind of earnings gamble: the play between rising interest-rate benefits and mounting credit risks. Banks have benefited historically from higher net interest margins as borrowing yields rise, but persistent economic stress can push charge-offs and loan-loss provisions higher. For Capital One, analysts will scrutinize loan growth, delinquencies and the bank’s reserve build — variables that will shape not only the stock’s trajectory but also investor expectations for the sector’s resilience.

Markets are already positioned for volatility. Earnings season tends to concentrate risk as investors reprice forecasts across sectors; stocks that exceed expectations can experience sharp intraday gains, while misses often prompt swift selloffs. Morgan Stanley’s emphasis on overweight-rated names is intended to guide clients toward areas where the firm expects statistical beats, yet the note also implicitly acknowledged the asymmetric risks that accompany the current macro backdrop: sticky inflation, a still-tight Federal Reserve and uneven consumer spending.

Beyond the immediate stock moves, the upcoming reports will feed into broader policy and market narratives. Strong results at bank and consumer-facing companies could temper recession fears and reduce the likelihood of dramatic policy shifts, while soft ad or credit metrics might reinforce expectations of subdued growth and keep the Fed vigilant. For investors, the lesson is familiar but urgent: this earnings season will be a high-resolution test of how corporate fundamentals are holding up against a complex economic landscape.