NOAA Watch Raised Northern Lights Chances, Local Viewing Possible
A moderate geomagnetic storm watch issued by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center for December 3 and 4 raised the prospect of visible aurora for residents of Morgan County. The watch followed a coronal mass ejection tied to an X1.9 solar flare and a forecasted high speed stream that together increased the likelihood of geomagnetic activity.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center issued a G2 geomagnetic storm watch that covered the period of December 3 into the morning of December 4, after observers recorded a coronal mass ejection on December 1 tied to an X1.9 flare from Region 4299 at 01/0249 UTC. Forecasters cited uncertainty in the timing and strength of arriving solar material but noted that a combination of a high speed stream from a coronal hole and a possible glancing blow from the ejected material warranted the watch.
For Morgan County the practical result was an increased chance that the aurora borealis could appear on the northern horizon, especially for residents in less light polluted areas and in the northern parts of the county. G2 level storms typically allow horizon viewing in northern states, and can push the visible aurora as far south as the Illinois Wisconsin border under favorable conditions. Forecasters and amateur observers acknowledged the odds were not certain, and the event depended on the exact interaction of solar ejecta and Earth directed streams.
Aurora photographer Vincent Ledvina and other observers assessed that the CME by itself would likely have limited effect because most of the blast passed east of the Sun Earth line, but that the co rotating interaction region expected to arrive at the same time could elevate activity to G1 and G2 conditions with a Kp index around five to six. They also noted a slight but unlikely chance of stronger G3 storming.
This watch followed a severe G4 storm on November 11 that carried aurora deeper into the continental United States and a second day of strong activity on November 12, underscoring the recent uptick in solar activity. For residents wishing to attempt photography, basic adjustments include longer exposure times and an ISO setting in the 1600 to 3200 range to capture faint light on the horizon.
Local officials and service providers should continue monitoring updates from the Space Weather Prediction Center and prepare for any advisory notices, while residents interested in viewing the aurora should seek dark open skies and check official forecasts for timing and intensity.
