Pakistan Sees Rooftop Solar Surpass Daytime Grid Demand in Hubs

Pakistan’s climate ministry said on the sidelines of COP30 that behind the meter rooftop solar will, for the first time, exceed daytime grid demand in some major industrial regions as early as next year. Secretary Aisha Moriani told Reuters the country is likely to see negative grid linked demand during bright daytime hours in hubs such as Lahore, Faisalabad and Sialkot as businesses with rooftop arrays fully offset their consumption from the public grid.

The development is the result of a surge in rooftop installations driven by prolonged power outages, steep tariff increases for grid electricity and a flood of imported photovoltaic panels. Regulators and ministers noted that imports have expanded so rapidly that Pakistan has become a top global importer of solar panels, making small scale generation economically attractive for factories and commercial buildings.

The immediate economic effect is two sided. For consumers and many industrial users, self generation has lowered bills and cut emissions from thermal plants. For state owned distribution companies, already burdened with heavy debt, the loss of daytime sales threatens cash flow that underpins payments to generators and the government. The utilities rely on predictable load shapes to manage debt servicing and fuel purchases, and a sustained shift in midday demand complicates those arrangements.

Policymakers are weighing several responses. Authorities said they are considering new tariff rules and fee structures for large solar users to recover network costs from customers who depend less on grid supply but still use transmission and distribution assets. The government is also renegotiating long term liquefied natural gas contracts with suppliers to align gas imports with a shifting demand profile that could see lower daytime consumption and continued overnight needs for baseload generation.

The technical challenges are immediate. Distribution networks designed for one way flows must adapt to bidirectional flows when customers export surplus electricity. Grid operators will need to invest in monitoring, inverter controls and possibly storage to manage voltage and frequency issues that arise when localized generation outstrips local demand. Market rules for net metering and compensation for exported power will be critical to preserving utility revenue while supporting clean energy growth.

Longer term, Pakistan’s transition highlights a global pattern in emerging markets where distributed solar scales faster than central planners anticipated. The outcome will depend on policy choices that balance financial sustainability for utilities, fair cost allocation for all customers and incentives for clean energy investment. If regulators can redesign tariffs and incorporate storage and demand management, the country could lock in lower emissions and greater energy resilience. If not, utilities may face deeper fiscal stress and the nation could confront stranded assets in gas fired capacity acquired under previous demand assumptions.

The developments announced at COP30 underline a pivotal moment for Pakistan’s power sector, where rapid technology adoption is forcing a reordering of contracts, grid operations and fiscal priorities.