From trading floors to the Federal Reserve and economists at home, the first Friday of the month typically brings a hush as market participants await the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report. “From Wall Street trading floors to the Federal Reserve to economists sipping coffee in their home offices, the first Friday morning of the month typically brings a quiet hush around 8:30 a.m. eastern as everyone awaits the Labor Department’s crucial monthly jobs report,” AP reporter Bob Rugaber wrote, capturing the unusual void now left by the shutdown.

The pause matters because the Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls and household employment surveys are central to assessing labor-market tightness, wage growth and inflation dynamics. Those data feed directly into Federal Reserve deliberations about interest rates and shape investor expectations: roughly a million trades can respond in seconds to a stronger- or weaker-than-expected print. With the official releases suspended, markets have fewer reliable inputs to price risk, and strategists warn volatility could rise.

Private alternatives — payroll-processor reports such as ADP’s monthly tally, online vacancy trackers and regional Federal Reserve surveys — will be used more heavily, but economists caution these proxies have limitations. Private payroll measures typically cover only a subset of employers and can diverge from the Labor Department’s benchmarked nonfarm payrolls by tens of thousands of jobs. Job-openings and quits data, which inform the Fed about labor-market churn and wage pressure, are also produced by the Labor Department and are likely to be delayed, further narrowing the information set.

The policy implications are acute. Fed officials have repeatedly cited labor-market readings as a key pillar in judging whether inflation is cooling. Without timely, comprehensive employment statistics, Fed policymakers face a higher risk of misjudging the economy’s trajectory. That could mean moving too aggressively and dragging the economy into a sharper slowdown, or moving too little and allowing inflation to reaccelerate. Market reaction would be swift: commodity prices and Treasury yields are sensitive to shifts in perceived inflation risk, while equities can swing on changing growth expectations.

For businesses and households, the data gap complicates planning. Employers calibrate hiring and wage offers to labor-market trends; investors price corporate forecasts with labor costs in mind. Small businesses, which face tighter cash flows, particularly depend on up-to-date signals about consumer demand that hinge on employment and wage data.

Economists warn that if the shutdown persists, its economic toll will extend beyond lost data. Furloughed workers and contractors reduce spending, supply-chain monitoring weakens, and statistical disruptions can impair GDP measurement. Historical shutdowns have shaved tenths of a percentage point off quarterly growth; a prolonged stoppage could leave similar marks while obscuring the true depth of any slowdown.

Restoration of the Labor Department’s data machinery would quickly reduce uncertainty, analysts say. Until then, markets and policymakers must navigate with rougher maps, weighing incomplete private indicators against the risk that the next official release will bring surprises that could reset Fed strategy and market valuations.