Syria’s interim leader arrived in Moscow this week for a landmark first visit to Russia, where he is due to hold talks with President Vladimir Putin on political stabilization, humanitarian access and reconstruction funding. The meeting, confirmed by statements from both the Kremlin and the interim leader’s office, marks a high-profile diplomatic engagement that could reframe post-war economic recovery and foreign investment in Syria.

“The purpose of the visit is to secure Russian support for reconstruction and the safe return of Syrians abroad,” the interim leader’s office said in a brief statement. The Kremlin said the talks will cover bilateral relations and “regional stability,” without offering further detail.

Russia’s footprint in Syria has grown steadily since it intervened militarily in 2015 to bolster President Bashar al-Assad’s government. Russian forces maintain an air base at Khmeimim and a naval presence at Tartus, and Moscow has acted as a key broker in cease-fire arrangements and in managing ties with regional players. That posture has given Russia leverage over political negotiations and positioned Russian firms and contractors to contest lucrative reconstruction work—if sanctions and political conditions permit.

Economic stakes are large. Syria’s economy has contracted dramatically since 2011, with the World Bank and multiple analysts estimating a decline in gross domestic product of roughly 60 percent over the course of the conflict. The human cost compounds the economic challenge: more than 6 million people are internally displaced and some 5.6 million are registered as refugees abroad. Rebuilding infrastructure and housing for returnees will require vast resources, with estimates from international observers ranging broadly from tens of billions to much higher sums depending on the scope of reconstruction.

But Western sanctions—most notably the U.S. Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act—restrict many forms of commercial engagement with Damascus, complicating large-scale foreign investment. Analysts note that Russia’s advance could narrow options for Western firms while pushing reconstruction contracts toward Russian and allied companies willing to operate under sanction risk. That would strengthen Moscow’s regional economic ties and potentially give it preferential access to Syrian energy, port and mineral assets.

Market reaction has so far been muted, reflecting the limited exposure of global markets to Syria’s collapsed economy. Yet the political signals matter for investors and policymakers: greater Russian control of reconstruction could alter bidding dynamics in the eastern Mediterranean energy sector and affect how the European Union and United States calibrate sanctions and humanitarian assistance.

Washington and Brussels have repeatedly stated that meaningful reconstruction should be conditioned on a credible political transition. This visit tests that posture: if Moscow helps shepherd money and firms into Damascus without political concessions, it could entrench the status quo and reshape the long-term trajectory of Syria’s recovery. For Syrians, the outcome will determine whether reconstruction becomes a vehicle for return and stability or a geopolitical spoils system that sidelines broad-based reconstruction and accountability.