The ceasefire that took hold over the weekend brought immediate relief to civilians and relief among traders, but it also underscored the fragility of any pause in a conflict that has already exacted heavy human and economic costs. Scenes broadcast on CBS’s 60 Minutes showed families tentatively returning to neighborhoods, aid workers unloading supplies at makeshift crossings and medical teams racing to treat those wounded in recent weeks; interviews captured a mixture of cautious optimism and deep uncertainty.

United Nations agencies and local health authorities estimate that a large proportion of Gaza’s population was displaced during the fighting, with UN OCHA reporting that hundreds of thousands remain in urgent need of shelter, clean water and medicine. Israeli officials say the truce will allow the return of some hostages and the release of detainees held during the initial assault, though negotiators cautioned that progress on those fronts remains slow. “This is a respite, not a resolution,” one Western diplomat involved in the talks told CBS, speaking on condition of anonymity. “It’s a window to stabilize humanitarian conditions and see if political momentum can be built.”

Markets reacted quickly. Tel Aviv’s benchmark index rose modestly on the first day of the ceasefire as tourism-linked and consumer-facing stocks rallied on expectations of easing security costs; traders reported the TA-35 up roughly 3% intraday. The Israeli shekel firmed against the dollar, reflecting reduced immediate tail risks for local finance. At the same time, defense-sector stocks in the United States and Europe retreated from earlier gains as investors priced in a temporarily lower probability of prolonged regional escalation. Oil futures slipped about 2% on the news, reflecting some relief about supply-route risks in the eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea corridors.

Economists warn, however, that short-term market rebounds mask deeper economic damage. Gaza’s infrastructure has suffered heavy losses, and international agencies estimate reconstruction needs could run into the tens of billions of dollars. For Israel, the economic toll includes disrupted trade, higher defense spending and a hit to the tourism sector that had been recovering since the pandemic. “Even a prolonged ceasefire won’t immediately reverse the economic scarring,” said a senior IMF analyst. “Investment decisions, credit spreads and tourism flows react to political risk over months and years, not days.”

Policy implications are immediate and consequential. The ceasefire puts pressure on Washington, Cairo and Doha to convert a temporary pause into sustained aid access and a framework for prisoner exchanges and reconstruction commitments. U.S. officials have signaled readiness to lead donor coordination while pressing Israel for guarantees on humanitarian corridors and proportionality in operations. Regional players face a choice: back mediation toward a longer-term political settlement or allow cyclical hostilities to reassert themselves, perpetuating instability.

Long-term trends point to persistent vulnerability. Recurrent conflicts have eroded public services, increased poverty rates, and shifted demographics in ways that complicate any future settlement. For markets and policymakers alike, the question is whether this ceasefire becomes a turning point toward durable reconstruction and diplomacy, or merely a brief calm before a return to violence. The coming weeks will determine whether hope holds or unravels.