Top Investor Says Wall Street Underestimates Nvidia, Sees Upside

Gene Munster, founder of Deepwater Asset Management, offered a bullish counterpoint to growing caution on Nvidia as the chipmaker heads into its next earnings report. Munster argues the market is underestimating the company on two fronts, and he laid out a scenario that would leave analysts behind and leave room for more upside in the share price.

Munster pointed to a revenue target communicated by CEO Jensen Huang to long short seller Blackwell and investor Rubin that, according to Munster, implies more than 10 percent upside through the end of calendar 2026. Using that input he wrote that he expects calendar 2026 revenue forecasts to rise from the current consensus of 39 percent growth to 45 percent. That adjustment would tighten the gap between Wall Street expectations and management signals and keep Nvidia on a higher growth trajectory than many models now assume.

The current analyst consensus shows a sharp deceleration in growth after the AI driven boom. Street estimates anticipate 59 percent revenue growth in 2025, 39 percent in 2026, and 22 percent in 2027. Munster says that path underestimates two practical constraints and one practical upside. He highlighted supply uncertainty and the uneven reaction of analysts as reasons for caution from some market participants. "First, it is unclear how much supply they will ultimately have on hand," he stated. "Second, there are 60 analysts covering the company, and not all have changed numbers. Of the analysts that have raised numbers, they have increased their revenue outlook by about 6 percent for next year."

Those dynamics matter because supply and analyst coverage feed directly into market pricing and investor expectations. If Nvidia has more product availability than currently assumed, revenue could surprise to the upside even as investment flows into AI hardware continue to accelerate. Conversely, persistent supply constraints would limit the company even as demand from cloud providers and hyperscalers remains strong.

Market moves this year have been significant. Nvidia shares are up roughly 40 percent in 2025, yet Munster noted the stock has still been outpaced by some rivals such as AMD and Intel. The relative performance reflects both company specific news and the shifting investor calculus about which firms will best monetize the AI wave.

For investors and policymakers the debate is consequential. A sustained run of upside for Nvidia would extend the influence of AI on capital spending in data centers, lift earnings for equipment suppliers and memory makers, and shape industrial policy conversations around semiconductor capacity. It would also put pressure on valuation multiples across the sector as consensus growth rates are revised upward.

Munster’s case does not deny the possibility of near term deceleration. He acknowledges analysts worry about a cooling AI trade and the potential for slowed growth in reported results. His contention is narrower and optimistic. He expects the boom times for Nvidia to continue for at least the next two years, and he sees consensus forecasts as too conservative given management commentary and early analyst revisions. As Nvidia reports, the market will test those assumptions against fresh revenue and supply data, and the outcome will recalibrate expectations for the AI hardware cycle.