The federal government faces an unprecedented test of capacity and credibility as the White House moves toward plans for broad federal layoffs while Congress remains deadlocked over funding. Senior administration officials privately warned that a mass firing of civil servants during a shutdown could cripple essential functions from passport processing to disaster response, complicate international missions and expose the United States to legal and diplomatic risk.

“There are statutory and practical limits to what can be done in shutdown conditions,” said a senior administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Firing people en masse would be catastrophic for continuity and for our relationships abroad.” Legal experts note that the Antideficiency Act and other civil service protections make permanent dismissals during an appropriations lapse both legally fraught and operationally difficult, meaning the White House would face lawsuits and prolonged disruption.

The crisis followed the Senate’s failure to pass a budget before leaving town, leaving the chamber out of session and the government without full appropriations. A Washington Post poll of 1,000 adults taken during the standoff found a plurality of respondents assigning blame to the president and congressional Republicans, reflecting public frustration that could alter political calculations ahead.

Compounding domestic turmoil, Mr. Trump used a recent address to Congress to cast the cartels as a national-security threat, declaring that the United States is effectively in “an armed conflict” with transnational drug networks. The rhetoric presages an aggressive new posture that Republican leaders say could include enhanced military and law-enforcement cooperation with partner countries, expanded interdiction operations and increased border enforcement.

The proclamation has alarmed diplomats and leaders in Mexico and Central America, who warn that a militarized U.S. approach risks infringing on sovereignty and provoking escalatory responses. “An intensified crackdown without clear coordination will create instability,” said an analyst at a Washington think tank. The administration’s proposals for funding and authorities will likely require congressional approval, setting up another political struggle at home with tangible consequences for neighbors to the south.

Domestic politics are further strained by the administration’s approval of a new abortion-related drug, a move that has infuriated parts of the conservative base and highlighted tensions within the Republican coalition. Conservative activists and some House Republicans have criticized the decision as a betrayal, even as moderate supporters argue the approval follows existing regulatory procedures.

The combined trajectory — looming federal layoffs, a stymied Senate, an escalated anti-cartel campaign and culture-war flashpoints — is already reshaping how allies and adversaries view Washington. Consular delays and staffing gaps threaten American travelers and businesses abroad; a more muscular counter-narcotics posture raises legal and ethical questions under international law; and internal fissures within the Republican Party could determine which of Mr. Trump’s initiatives advance.

For voters and foreign partners alike, the unfolding crisis underscores a simple fact: disruptions in Washington reverberate globally. As budget negotiations remain stalled and new security strategies are proposed, the next few weeks will test the resilience of U.S. governance and the diplomatic ties that depend on it.