United States presses Europe to assume majority of NATO conventional defense by 2027

Pentagon officials are telling European diplomats this week that the United States wants Europe to assume most NATO conventional defense responsibilities, from intelligence to missiles, by 2027. The message, delivered at a Washington meeting, set a sharp timetable and carried an explicit warning that Washington may cease participation in some NATO defense coordination mechanisms if allies do not make adequate progress.

European diplomats reacted with alarm, describing the deadline as unrealistic in light of production bottlenecks, logistical hurdles and capabilities that remain uniquely American. Officials in several capitals said scaling up missile stocks, intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance capacity and sustainment systems within two years would require unprecedented procurement acceleration and political consensus that has yet to materialize.

The demand adds a new layer to an already fraught transatlantic debate over burden sharing. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine prompted a wave of defense investment across Europe, NATO members have increased spending and committed to higher readiness. Yet defense industrial base limitations persist, and European countries differ widely in the ability to produce munitions, sensors and platforms at scale. That uneven capacity underlies concerns that a fast timeline could leave gaps in deterrence and operational interoperability.

Complicating the Kremlin calculus, the United States framing of a European takeover of conventional responsibilities would not affect the American nuclear umbrella, analysts say, but could nevertheless alter how NATO arranges command and control, intelligence sharing and integrated air and missile defense. The Pentagon’s warning to withdraw from some coordination mechanisms signals a willingness to use leverage to accelerate change, but it also risks eroding the very integration that makes NATO effective.

Ambiguity about whether the 2027 timetable reflects an official White House policy or a Pentagon position heightened tensions. Allies typically expect major shifts in alliance posture to be coordinated at the political level in Washington and Brussels. Diplomats said that a mixed signal from different branches of the U.S. government complicates planning and may force European leaders to seek formal clarification in upcoming meetings of NATO and national capitals.

For European governments the political calculus is stark. Rapidly expanding industrial output requires not only investment but regulatory harmonization and export control arrangements that allow munitions and critical components to flow across borders. Domestic politics will also shape responses, as publics in many countries are wary of escalatory dynamics and defense ministers balance fiscal constraints against the imperative to deter aggression.

Analysts caution that a blunt American timeline could backfire by provoking fracture rather than unity. Allies are likely to press for a phased transition, clearer benchmarks and reinforcement of multilateral procurement mechanisms that would spread costs and reduce duplication. The next steps will test transatlantic diplomacy, with Washington’s willingness to coordinate and European capacity to deliver determining whether the alliance can translate a headline goal into sustainable military readiness.