Virginia’s Republican campaigns have returned to a concentrated focus on transgender issues, resurrecting a messaging strategy credited with helping former President Donald Trump in the 2024 cycle and now aimed at flipping competitive statewide contests. The approach surfaced prominently in a campaign advertisement from Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and at her June 17 primary-night rally in Richmond, where she sought to burnish conservative credentials in a crowded GOP field.

In an ad played by Earle-Sears’s campaign, the lieutenant governor declared, “They despise everything you stand for, and we’re running out of time to stop them,” language that encapsulates the zero-sum, cultural-framing strategy now circulating across Republican messaging in the state. The lines echo national tactics that political operatives say can consolidate core conservative voters while pressuring suburban moderates who became a decisive bloc in recent elections.

Virginia’s political landscape makes it a test case. The state’s electorate is a mosaic of rapidly growing suburbs, urban centers that trend Democratic, and rural counties that remain solidly conservative. That mix means targeted cultural messaging can both energize a Republican base and complicate Democratic efforts to focus campaigns on pocketbook issues and local governance. Recent polling, including a national snapshot showing voter division on the midterm landscape despite broad disapproval of Mr. Trump, suggests messaging that reframes contests around identity and cultural priorities retains potency even when a candidate or political brand is unpopular in the abstract.

Democrats in Virginia face strategic trade-offs. Responding to anti-trans attacks risks amplifying the rhetoric and turning legislative and judicial candidates into surrogates in a national culture war. Not responding, however, can concede the narrative and allow Republicans to tie Democrats to unfamiliar or unpopular positions in parts of the state where swing voters determine outcomes. The tension places party organizers and civic groups in the position of calibrating when to litigate policy differences publicly and when to pivot to localized economic and service-oriented messaging.

Beyond campaign calculus, the renewed focus on transgender issues carries institutional implications for state governance and civic engagement. Advocacy organizations warn such campaigns can depress participation by LGBTQ+ voters and allies who may perceive heightened hostility, while simultaneously mobilizing conservative volunteers and donors. School boards, local health agencies and social service providers may also face increased scrutiny and politicization, complicating routine policy implementation and potentially chilling professional discretion.

The broader national environment is converging with Virginia’s political moment. Calls within Republican circles to change Senate rules, debates over federal benefits and litigation around administrative decisions feed into a narrative of institutional contestation that state-level campaigns can exploit. For voters, the upshot is a midterm season in which cultural themes could decisively reshape turnout patterns even as many express reservations about national figures who popularized those themes.

The circulation of potent cultural narratives underscores a persistent need for transparent fact-checking by local media and clear civic education about how state policy choices intersect with everyday life. As Virginia moves toward competitive fall races, the state will reveal whether identity-focused strategies remain an effective lever for reshaping electoral coalitions or whether voters will prioritize governance and pocketbook concerns over polarized cultural frames.