Roughly one year before the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats hold an early and notable advantage in the battle for Congress, buoyed by voter frustration with President Donald Trump on the economy and the rising cost of living, according to a national NBC News poll. The survey shows Democrats leading Republicans by 50% to 42% on the congressional ballot — an eight-point margin and the largest such lead for either party in NBC’s polling since the 2018 midterms.

The poll paints a picture of a presidency that has not met the expectations of a significant portion of the electorate on issues that helped return Mr. Trump to the White House in 2024. Around two-thirds of voters say he has not lived up to their expectations on the economy and on the cost of living, and a broader pattern of dissatisfaction appears to be taking shape as the country contends with a government shutdown that has heightened attention on Washington’s capacity to govern.

Political operatives and strategists from both parties will view the poll through the lens of timing. One year is a long horizon in modern politics; nevertheless, an early double-digit advantage in favorability on the congressional ballot is uncommon and gives Democrats a potential opening to frame next year’s campaign around pocketbook issues and legislative competence. For Republicans, the findings underscore the challenge of translating presidential popularity into sustained legislative gains, especially if economic anxieties remain salient for voters.

The domestic reverberations are likely to be matched by international ones. A struggling U.S. economy or fractured government can complicate Washington’s ability to project steady leadership abroad, affecting everything from trade negotiations to security commitments. Global markets are highly sensitive to perceptions of U.S. political stability and economic stewardship; prolonged uncertainty or further fiscal standoffs could ripple through supply chains and investor confidence. Allies and partners watching the U.S. agenda will be alert to signals about the durability of American policy commitments, while adversaries may interpret domestic disarray as an opening for geopolitical maneuvering.

The poll’s findings also place a premium on messaging and turnout operations. Midterms are traditionally influenced by mobilization dynamics and local contests, and an early lead does not guarantee electoral success for Democrats. House and Senate maps, candidate quality, and regional factors will all shape eventual outcomes. Still, the combination of voter disillusionment on core economic issues and a tangible lead in congressional preference gives Democrats leverage to shape the narrative and policy priorities heading into 2026.

For Republicans, the results suggest the need to recalibrate strategy and address the concerns that propelled Mr. Trump’s 2024 comeback but have not been resolved to voters’ satisfaction. How both parties respond in the coming months — whether by offering tangible policy proposals, stabilizing government operations, or shifting campaign emphasis — will determine whether this poll represents a fleeting snapshot or the opening chapter of a sustained political realignment.