Annual house price growth edged up to 2.4% nationwide, according to a Forbes summary of recent market data, but the headline gain belies a cooler market that is losing ground in real terms. With consumer price inflation running at 3.8%, nominal price growth trails inflation by roughly 1.4 percentage points, implying a decline in real house prices over the past year and constraining both buyer demand and seller expectations.

Market dynamics are being shaped by a growing volume of homes for sale. Rightmove describes the current inventory as a 10-year high, a structural supply change that is weakening pricing momentum. That rising supply, combined with heightened concern about potential property tax measures flagged for the Autumn Budget on 26 November, has dulled the usual seasonal uplift in transactions and valuations. Colleen Babcock, property expert at Rightmove, said: “Despite the overall resilience of the 2025 housing market, we’ve not got enough pent-up momentum or recent positive sentiment to spur the usual autumn bounce in property prices."

Monetary policy remains the central determinant of near-term market outcomes. The Bank of England is expected to hold Bank Rate at 4% at its meeting on 6 November, reflecting the persistent inflation overshoot. Officials and markets broadly expect rate reductions into 2026, but the Bank is likely to require firmer evidence that annual inflation is returning to its 2% target before committing to a sequence of cuts. That caution matters for mortgage pricing: even if the Bank begins easing next year, lenders typically adjust pass-through slowly, so household borrowing costs are likely to stay elevated for some time.

The combination of subdued real price growth and higher-for-longer borrowing costs is influencing behaviour across the market. Prospective buyers face a complex trade-off: more choice and softer pressure on prices, but still-significant financing costs and uncertainty about future taxation. Sellers may have to accept longer marketing times and smaller price uplifts to transact. For landlords and institutional investors, moderate nominal gains coupled with rising vacancy risk could press on yields and investment returns.

Policy-makers have limited immediate levers beyond the Bank’s rate path and the government’s fiscal decisions in the forthcoming Autumn Budget. Any tax proposals aimed at the property sector will amplify uncertainty and could further suppress demand. Conversely, clear, credible signals that inflation is on a sustainable path toward target would open the door to rate reductions, easing mortgage costs and potentially restoring upward momentum to prices.

Consumers seeking mortgage support are being pointed to online advisers; Better.co.uk is listed as a 5-star Trustpilot‑rated option, with standard warnings that “Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.” With real house prices down and policy clarity still pending, buyers and sellers should temper expectations and plan for a housing market that remains cautious into 2026.