OPEC reclaims Indian crude market as Russian flows slump

Trade data and industry reporting show a sharp reallocation in India’s crude import mix in December 2025, as tighter U.S. and European Union sanctions and compliance pressures led to a marked fall in Russian seaborne shipments and opened space for OPEC producers. Month-on-month figures indicate Russia’s volumes to India fell in the range of 22–29 percent, while OPEC’s share of India’s crude basket rose into the low-50s percent for December.

Multiple datasets put Russian shipments at about 1.38 million barrels per day in December after a roughly 22 percent decline from November; other compilations recorded an even steeper 29 percent fall and estimated Russia supplied roughly 25–27 percent of India’s crude that month, the lowest since early 2023. At the same time, OPEC accounted for roughly 53.2 percent of India’s crude imports in December and edged to an average 50 percent for full-year 2025, up from 49 percent the year before. For the year, Russia nonetheless remained India’s single largest supplier, providing about 33.3 percent of imports in 2025 compared with 36 percent in 2024.

The proximate cause of the December disruption was the imposition and enforcement of new sanctions and associated compliance responses. U.S. measures by the Office of Foreign Assets Control targeting major Russian oil producers, including Rosneft and Lukoil, were cited as disrupting established flows and complicating trading relationships. Buyers and refiners, under scrutiny from banks and insurers wary of secondary sanctions, curtailed some purchases or rerouted transactions, prompting an immediate but uneven drop in cargo arrivals.

At the refinery level the impact was visible. Jamnagar-based Reliance Industries, long a large buyer of discounted Russian grades, halved its Russian intake in December and stopped receiving cargoes under its Rosneft arrangement in the final 10 days of the month. State-owned refiners reduced Russian purchases by roughly 15 percent, while several private refiners curtailed or halted such purchases. Indian Oil Corporation continued to source from non-sanctioned Russian suppliers, highlighting a fragmented private-state response to compliance risk.

The shift had broader trade and refining consequences. Reports show India’s payments for Russian hydrocarbons fell from around €2.6 billion in November to an estimated €2.3 billion in December, covering crude, coal and products. Analysis of product flows underlines how refiners processing Russian crude exported nearly €943 million of fuel and oil products to economies that have imposed sanctions, with an estimated €274 million of those exports originating from Russian barrels. Those re-export patterns complicate enforcement and expose the global nature of refined product markets.

Regionally, the December reshuffle benefited other buyers. China increased seaborne purchases of Russian crude by about 23 percent month-on-month and remained the largest buyer overall, while Turkiye displaced India as the second-largest purchaser of Russian hydrocarbons that month.

Analysts warn the short-term compliance-driven disruption could pressure Indian refiners’ margins and accelerate sourcing from the Middle East, the United States and South America. Forecasts suggest Indian purchases of Russian crude could stabilize in January in the 1.2–1.4 million bpd range, but whether December represents a temporary compliance blip or the start of a longer reorientation will depend on enforcement dynamics, cargo-by-cargo trade patterns and decisions by both private refiners and policymakers in New Delhi seeking energy security and affordability.