Taiwan to Propose $40 Billion Boost in Defence Spending, Tighten Deterrence

Taiwan’s president announced a proposal for a supplementary defence budget of roughly $40 billion on Wednesday, a major escalation in military spending intended to strengthen the island’s ability to deter sustained pressure from Beijing. According to reporting by Agence France Presse the package would bankroll significant new purchases from the United States and invest heavily in asymmetric capabilities designed to complicate any potential amphibious or aerial attack.

The proposal, set out in public comments and an opinion piece cited by AFP, comes as Taipei plans to increase defence spending as a share of gross domestic product. Officials describe the objective as improving deterrence by raising the costs and uncertainty that Beijing would face in contemplating the use of force across the Taiwan Strait. That strategic calculation underlies a broader shift in Taiwan’s security posture toward systems and doctrines that favor mobility, survivability, and escalatory ambiguity.

The supplemental budget marks a notable intensification of Taipei’s response to repeated Chinese military and political pressure. In recent years Chinese aircraft and naval forces have regularly conducted sorties and patrols near Taiwan, and Beijing has continued diplomatic and economic measures to isolate the island internationally. Taipei’s focus on asymmetrical capabilities reflects an assessment that small, distributed and highly mobile forces can impose disproportionate costs on a larger adversary while reducing the risk of decisive defeat.

The United States is central to the plan. The proposed purchases from U.S. suppliers would deepen security cooperation that has expanded since 2020, and would test how quickly Washington can approve transfers amid competing domestic priorities. The package is likely to draw close scrutiny in Congress and among regional partners, where officials will weigh the benefits of bolstered Taiwanese self defence against risks of heightened tensions.

International law offers Taiwan a clear right to self defence, but the island occupies an ambiguous status in diplomatic practice. That ambiguity complicates how other governments publicly respond to large scale Taiwanese rearmament. Washington’s legal posture is governed by the Taiwan Relations Act which commits the United States to provide Taiwan with defensive arms, without a formal defense treaty. That framework has allowed close security ties while leaving room for caution about explicit commitments.

Domestically the measure will require parliamentary approval and will put pressure on Taiwan’s public finances. A $40 billion supplementary package could affect other spending priorities and will come with political debate over procurement speed, industrial capacity and the balance between near term purchases and longer term domestic defence development.

For Beijing the budget is likely to be portrayed as provocative and to justify further military readiness. For Taipei the calculation is that credible deterrence depends on making any aggression costly and uncertain. The initiative therefore represents a strategic gamble aimed at preserving peace by strengthening the means to deny and punish aggression, while testing the diplomatic and logistical seams of an increasingly fraught regional security environment.