Distributor Demand Remains Weak, Craft Beer Still Deep in Contraction
The November Beer Purchasers Index landed at 25, up only one point from October, signaling continued weak distributor demand across the beer market. Craft beer stayed deeply in contraction with a November reading of 15, while cider improved to a stronger reading of 41, a pattern that matters for brewery sales plans heading into 2026.
The latest Beer Purchasers Index, released December 1, confirmed that wholesale demand remained subdued as the industry closed out the year. The overall index measured 25, a level that sits well below the 50 threshold that separates growth from contraction, and represented only a one point gain from October. The craft segment was the weakest performer, with a November reading of 15 that signals sustained distributor reluctance toward new placements and larger order sizes. Cider stood out as the best performing category, improving to a reading of 41, though that level still sits below expansion territory.
For independent breweries the immediate picture is practical and clear. Expect leaner distributor inventories and fewer opportunities for new shelf placements during the winter buying cycle. Reorder volumes are likely to shrink, and brewery sales teams should plan for smaller order sizes and longer lead times between replenishments. Those conditions will influence production planning, cash flow forecasting, and promotional calendars in the months ahead.
This result continued a fall pattern of month to month craft readings that consistently remained below the expansion threshold. The persistence of low craft demand suggests that distribution partners are exercising caution as they manage inventory and shelf space. The contrast with cider shows there are segment level differences that breweries can exploit. For breweries that produce cider or can partner with cidermakers, there may be tactical openings for account development and cross promoted listings.
Practical responses include tightening production runs to avoid overstock, prioritizing core SKUs for distributor focus, and increasing emphasis on direct to consumer channels such as taproom sales, online orders, and subscription offerings. Small pack sizes and seasonal limited releases can help sustain retailer interest without tying up distributor capacity. Strengthening on premise relationships and aligning promotional incentives with distributor needs will be important to maintain or regain momentum.
Looking ahead to 2026, breweries that adapt to distributor caution by reallocating sales effort, refining inventory strategies, and leaning on direct channels will be better positioned to navigate what appears to be a continuation of soft wholesale demand. Community collaboration, clear communication with distributor partners, and nimble operations will be the most valuable tools for independent brewers during this period.
