French Economy Likely To Grow At Least 0.8 Percent in 2025

France's finance minister Roland Lescure says the economy is on track to grow by at least 0.8 percent in 2025, an outcome that would marginally outpace the government's 0.7 percent forecast, provided there is no sharp reversal in the final quarter. Speaking to LCI television today, Lescure cited the third quarter's 0.5 percent expansion as evidence of underlying resilience and said the 0.8 percent mark is "within reach."

The minister framed the outlook as conditional rather than guaranteed, noting that a meaningful downturn in the fourth quarter would be required for full year growth to dip below 0.8 percent. That caveat underscores the narrow margin separating a modest upside from the official baseline and highlights the sensitivity of annual growth to short term swings in domestic demand and external demand conditions.

Statistically, the third quarter pick up provides a clear cushion. A 0.5 percent quarter on quarter expansion implies a stronger starting point for the final quarter than if growth had been flat, reducing the scale of any rebound required to close the year above the government forecast. For policy makers, even a marginal overshoot matters because higher growth translates into improved tax receipts and a smaller deficit path than forecasted, easing pressure on near term public finances without having to make immediate additional adjustments.

Markets will watch how investors interpret Lescure's comments. Bond markets are sensitive to shifts in growth expectations when they alter perceived fiscal risks. If investor confidence that growth will exceed 0.7 percent solidifies, refinancing costs for the state could ease slightly, though any effect will depend on the trajectory of inflation and European Central Bank policy. For corporate borrowers and households, a firmer growth backdrop would support revenue and income prospects, but the impact will be uneven across sectors.

Risks that could derail the optimistic scenario include a sudden global slowdown, renewed energy price volatility, or a domestic consumption slump. Lescure pointed to positive indicators across sectors but did not detail which components were driving momentum. That leaves macro watchers focused on forthcoming data on investment, exports and household spending as the fourth quarter unfolds.

Longer term, a modest overshoot would not alter deeper structural challenges facing France, including productivity growth and labor market participation. However, it would buy political and fiscal breathing room for the government as it prepares fiscal plans ahead. The final assessment of 2025 will rest on official fourth quarter figures, which will show whether the resilience of the first three quarters is sustained or whether seasonal and cyclical factors trim the headline growth rate.