Trump backed Asfura Holds Narrow Lead, Honduras Count Resumes

The National Electoral Council resumed the slow update of presidential results on Tuesday after a multi day interruption left the count frozen and Hondurans waiting for clarity. With 97 percent of ballots tallied Nasry Asfura of the conservative National Party leads with 40.52 percent of the vote, ahead of television host and three time presidential candidate Salvador Nasralla who has 39.18 percent. Rixi Moncada of the ruling Libre Party stands at 19.32 percent. The margin separating Asfura and Nasralla is roughly 42,100 votes, a sliver in a polarized electorate.

The tally was paused on Friday when officials said about 16 percent of tally sheets showed inconsistencies and required review. Ana Paola Hall, president of the National Electoral Council, said on X, "After carrying out the necessary technical actions (with external auditing), the data is now being updated in the results," and urged candidates to remain alert and file any legal challenges as required. International observers and monitoring groups have pressed the council to accelerate and make the process more transparent to restore public trust.

The extended count has heightened political tensions. Nasralla has alleged fraud while Moncada has demanded annulment of results and called for protests and strikes. Despite those calls, streets in Tegucigalpa and other cities were calm on Tuesday, but memories of deadly unrest after the contested 2017 vote hang over the capital and raise the risk of wider instability if the process appears opaque or legally unresolved.

The campaign has been unusual for its direct U.S. involvement. Former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly backed Asfura and signalled he could cut U.S. funds to Honduras if another candidate wins. Days before voting Mr. Trump announced he would pardon ex president Juan Orlando Hernandez, who was serving a sentence in the United States. Honduras authorities responded with a sharp legal development when the attorney general said an international arrest warrant had been issued for Hernandez, adding to the political complexity.

Economically the uncertainty matters. Honduras depends heavily on external financing and remittances for foreign exchange and fiscal stability, making the country sensitive to shifts in U.S. policy and investor sentiment. A protracted dispute over the result could raise the perceived sovereign risk premium, complicate access to financing and slow foreign direct investment. Security cooperation and migration agreements with the United States, both significant levers of bilateral engagement, are also at stake and could be influenced by Washington if it perceives a threat to its strategic interests.

For markets and policymakers the immediate watchwords are transparency and legal clarity. Faster, fully audited returns would reduce the likelihood of disruptive street protests and limit economic spillovers. For longer term trends the election underscores how domestic contests in Central America increasingly intersect with geopolitics, migration flows and international law, elevating the stakes of what might otherwise have been a narrow national contest.