U.S. and Europe Advance Article 5 Like Guarantees for Ukraine

Diplomats and leaders gathered in Berlin on December 15 for intensive negotiations that produced measurable movement toward a bundled peace package for Ukraine built around three documents, participants said. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz hosted the talks and left negotiators to work, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and senior U.S. and European officials pressed for a security framework intended to deter further Russian aggression without extending full NATO membership.

The negotiating package under discussion comprises a peace plan, a set of security guarantees and an economic recovery and reconstruction plan. Delegates reported substantive discussion of a U.S. drafted 20 point peace plan that would require Kyiv to make difficult concessions on territory and on the size and posture of its armed forces. Those provisions have emerged as the sharpest point of contention, with Ukrainian negotiators warning that territorial terms must meet both legal and political tests at home.

At the core of the security discussion is a proposal for Article 5 like guarantees from the United States and a coalition of European and other partners including Canada and Japan. The envisaged guarantees would not confer NATO membership or automatic collective defense under NATO command structures. Instead they would be bespoke bilateral or plurilateral treaties committing guarantor states to provide swift and tangible support if the pact is violated, including military assistance, intelligence sharing, arms transfers, sanctions and financial backing.

United States officials described a role in which Europe would lead a multinational force, backed politically and materially by Washington. Participants said the plan would likely require U.S. congressional action to achieve full legal force, with one U.S. official saying "President Trump is willing to do that." That endorsement frames the domestic political hurdle ahead, where ratification in the U.S. Senate and parliamentary approvals across Europe could shape the pact's deterrent value.

Beyond security language, negotiators discussed an economic recovery plan aimed at reconstruction and long term stabilization. Delegates said reconstruction commitments would be tied to benchmarks on governance and anti corruption measures, and that sanctions and punitive measures for any future Russian incursions were being drafted as part of the deterrence architecture. Russian officials have signaled a willingness to discuss Ukrainian accession to the European Union, a development that could recast Kyiv's strategic orientation and accelerate parts of the economic agenda.

Despite progress, major uncertainties persist. There is no agreement yet on the territorial terms of a ceasefire or peace settlement, the precise obligations each guarantor would undertake, or the mechanism for rapid enforcement without NATO command integration. Kyiv officials cautioned that guarantees without significant U.S. engagement would lack credibility, while guarantor states face difficult domestic ratification processes that could limit the speed and scope of commitments.

European capitals including London, Paris and Berlin are now refining proposals ahead of further meetings. Diplomats said the immediate work will focus on tightening legal language, mapping military and financial capabilities against potential scenarios, and building the legislative coalitions needed to make the guarantees more than symbolic promises.